With that in mind, we can look backwards to a time when one salary was enough to sustain a family, and we relied on our neighbours and extended family more.

In another talk at the ARC Conference, Stephen Shaw outlined the demographic crisis facing us as birth rates across the world fall below replacement levels. This is a real problem, but one that is difficult to engage with if one lives in a palpably overcrowded nation.

Across the UK, the housing crisis is not merely one of supply and demand but of vision and purpose. We are building more homes but not building communities. Property prices soar, and young families are priced out of areas where they grew up, pushed into cramped apartments or distant commuter belts. Meanwhile, family farmers are squeezed out by taxes inspired by envy allowing asset funds to buy up their land, their inheritance lost to corporate greed. We are losing not just homes but roots.

High Density, Low Humanity

Urban planners often cite the need for high-density housing to meet demand, but density need not mean dreariness. The elegant Georgian crescents of Bath or the Regency terraces of Hove demonstrate that high-density living can be beautiful, functional, and humane. These areas thrive because they are designed with people in mind. Contrast this with the harsh, impersonal high-rises that now define much of urban Britain. In Glasgow, the destruction of tenements could have been an opportunity for renovation, preserving community networks and architectural heritage. Instead, they were replaced by brutalist tower blocks that isolated families and eroded social cohesion.

High-density housing has its place – for those starting out in life or downsizing in later years. But most people in their prime do not dream of raising children in a poky flat. They want a detached family home, with a decent sized garden or even a couple of acres. There is no good reason why this should be out of reach for so many.

Fragmented Families, Fragmented Communities

The decline of the village – both as a physical space and a social construct – has fractured the extended family. In the past, multigenerational living provided support networks crucial for raising children and caring for the elderly. Today, young families are scattered, elderly parents live miles away, and community ties are severed. If an emergency arose, could you rely on a neighbour to look after your toddlers for a few days? Would you even know them well enough to ask?

This fragmentation is not merely inconvenient; it undermines societal trust. When we do not know our neighbours, when they are not of our ‘tribe’, we retreat into isolation. The bonds that once held communities together are frayed, and loneliness is epidemic. A return to village life – to roots, not diaspora – could restore this trust.

Overpopulation or Underpopulation?

The current population of Earth is about 8 billion. While our planet can easily feed that many, the real challenge is not about food sustainability but about societal structures. If you live in a clearly overpopulated country such as the United Kingdom, you can feel the problem. Overcrowding is uncomfortable. Raising a multigenerational family is difficult. Fragmentation of communities leads to a breakdown of trust. We don’t know our neighbours, and they are not even of our tribe.

Interestingly, countries where tribal and clan structures remain intact tend to maintain birth rates above replacement levels. This suggests that a sense of rootedness, community cohesion, and shared identity play significant roles in sustaining population growth. In contrast, the atomisation seen in Western societies contributes to demographic decline.

The challenge for Western nations is stark. Declining birth rates mean fewer people to support social welfare systems, including pensions and healthcare. Yet, this demographic shift also presents an opportunity to reimagine society. As demand for housing decreases, the cost of living could fall, enabling a more balanced, community-centric way of life. Advances in technology mean fewer people need to live in urban centres, potentially reversing the trend towards high-density city living. After all, it was industrialisation that drove the mass migration from country to city. The post-industrial age offers the possibility of returning to more dispersed, sustainable communities.

This shift is not without its challenges. As Stephen Shaw eloquently argued at the ARC Conference, societies facing rapid population decline must find ways to stabilise birth rates to avoid collapse. Yet, there is no one-size-fits-all solution. While Shaw emphasises the urgency of reversing the birth rate crisis to sustain current societal structures, this article suggests a complementary perspective: embracing demographic change as an opportunity to rethink how we live, work, and relate to each other.

If done thoughtfully, a world with fewer people could be a better one – not through enforced population control but through a natural, voluntary rebalancing supported by sustainable community models. This requires bold leadership, innovative policies, and a cultural shift towards valuing multigenerational family life, community ties, and long-term sustainability.?

Amidst alarmism about declining birth rates, little attention is paid to how housing and community impact family formation. In the UK, overcrowding and high living costs discourage childbearing. The irony is stark: developed nations fear underpopulation, yet the lived experience is one of overpopulation – not of raw numbers but of density, congestion, and competition for space and resources.

The Case for Optimism

There is hope. Making it easier for people to reproduce at or beyond replacement levels, while targeting an optimal global population of about four billion, is achievable. It begins with rebuilding community support structures. Free childcare in the form of aunts and grandmothers. Proper tax breaks for families, as seen in Hungary. Restoring and upholding men's role as primary providers and risk-takers, ensuring they can support their families without the fear of financial ruin. A cultural shift towards early motherhood – beginning, on average, in a woman’s mid-twenties – supported by marriage stability and responsible sexual behaviour. Unwin's research demonstrated civilisations collapse when their sexual mores descend into hedonism.

People need to live in houses the right size for their stage of life, in a village with their extended family nearby, safe in the knowledge that they shall be supported by their immediate community from birth until death at a ripe old age. This is not nostalgia; it is pragmatism. The future of our societies depends on it.

Sustainable Villages: A Blueprint for Community Revival

We should embrace population decline and use it to destroy bad housing and reconstruct a world of villages.

It is possible to build sustainable villages that balance high-density and low-density housing, integrating functional community spaces and local amenities. Imagine villages centred around a primary school, a convenience store, and a couple of pubs – places designed to foster community interactions and social cohesion. High-density housing can accommodate young families and downsizers, while low-density homes with gardens support growing families. Small-scale farms and green spaces around the village provide food security, recreational opportunities, and environmental benefits. This blend encourages multigenerational living, reducing isolation and building trust..

The village model is not merely nostalgic; it is an adaptable, sustainable solution to modern societal challenges. By rethinking zoning laws and planning regulations, we can create communities that are walkable, liveable, and resilient. Such villages can maintain high population densities while preserving personal space and community identity, striking the right balance between privacy and social interaction.

Towards a Policy Agenda

To achieve this vision, policies must encourage:

• Housing Reform: Zoning laws that prioritise community over profit, enabling the building of family homes with gardens. Incentives for multigenerational living arrangements.

• Tax Incentives and Family Support: Substantial tax breaks for families, particularly those with young children. Support for stay-at-home parents and flexible work arrangements.

• Community Rebuilding: Urban planning focused on village-style communities with local schools, shops, and social spaces. Encouragement of localism and place-based identity.

• Cultural Change: Promotion of marriage stability, responsible sexual behaviour, and societal respect for motherhood and fatherhood.

This vision is not utopian. It is achievable, but it requires courage from policymakers and cultural leaders. It requires a rejection of transient consumerism in favour of rooted communities. And, above all, it requires a return to the fundamental truth that people are not economic units or social experiments. They are human beings, born to belong. We should look to a future when the UK population is about 50 million people, then it can stabilise at that level with sustainable birth rates, and those people (for I shall be long dead) will live in high-trust communities in the spaces that they want (and need). This is doubtless a centuries long project, but the sooner we start, the sooner we can get there.

The UK’s pub industry is on life support. If there’s any hope of saving this centuries-old institution, it lies in restructuring the way pubs and the drinks they sell are taxed. For years, supermarkets have been edging pubs out of the market by offering alcohol at prices pubs simply can’t compete with. But the solution is simple: remove alcohol duty from ‘on-sales’ and VAT from all drinks sold in pubs, allowing them to level the playing field against the supermarket giants.

To grasp the urgency of the situation, one need only look at the numbers. Back in 1990, the UK had around 63,500 pubs, which equated to 111 pubs for every 100,000 people. Today, that number has plummeted to roughly 47,200, or just 58 pubs per 100,000 people. In less than 30 years, the number of pubs per capita has halved, and the decline continues. The first quarter of 2023 alone saw 138 pubs shut their doors for good, a trend that shows no sign of abating.

Why Are Pubs So Important?

Pubs aren’t merely businesses; they are the lifeblood of many communities. In countless towns and villages across the UK, the local pub is the last communal meeting place, offering more than just a pint. It’s a venue for family gatherings, social events, and maintaining a sense of belonging. A report by the Campaign for Real Ale (CAMRA) pointed out that pubs serve as vital hubs for social cohesion, especially in rural areas where other social amenities are scarce.

When a pub closes, the community loses an important space for people to interact, connect, and engage with one another. For some, especially the elderly or those living alone, a visit to the local pub may be their only social interaction for days. The pub has traditionally been a place where issues are debated, where friendships are formed, and where local traditions are kept alive. Without pubs, we risk further fragmenting already isolated communities.

Competition from Supermarkets

While pubs are closing at an alarming rate, supermarket alcohol sales are soaring. Between 2010 and 2019, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recorded a staggering 50% rise in supermarket alcohol sales, a trend that directly correlates with the decline in pub sales. Supermarkets can sell alcohol at significantly lower prices, thanks to economies of scale and lower operational costs. Pubs, meanwhile, are burdened with higher expenses—rent, staff wages, utility bills—and, crucially, taxes – VAT, business rates, and alcohol duty, which hit ‘on-sales’ much harder than ‘off-sales’ in supermarkets. While the alcohol duty is 37 pence for a pint of 4.5% beer in a supermarket, and 34p for draught beer in pubs, VAT on a £2 supermarket pint is only 33p compared with 83p for a pub pint, overheads are higher for pubs, as is the profit margin necessary to sustain the business due to disparity in volume. There is already a difference in alcohol duty between off-sales and draught sales. At Spring Budget 2023 the government announced legislating to increase the new Draught Relief from 5% to 9.2% for qualifying beer and cider products, and from 20% to 23% for qualifying wine, spirits based and other fermented products. This indicates a recognition that rates of alcohol duty can be used to support pubs, but the amount is so inadequate as to have a negligible effect.

Currently, alcohol duty in the UK contributes around £13 billion annually to the Treasury, about 70% of this from supermarkets. Supermarkets can sell alcohol at far cheaper prices, encouraging people to buy in bulk and drink at home. As a result, pubs are fighting a losing battle, and the community suffers as social drinking shifts from a controlled, moderated environment to binge drinking in private.

The Case for Reducing the Tax Burden on Pubs

If pubs are to survive, one clear policy solution is to remove alcohol duty from ‘on-sales’ as well as to zero-rate the VAT for all drinks sold in pubs. This would allow pubs to price alcohol and soft drinks more competitively, giving them a chance to win back customers. Pubs are unique in that they provide a regulated space for alcohol consumption. The publican has the legal responsibility to ensure patrons don’t drink to excess, creating a safer environment for social drinking. By contrast, supermarket alcohol is consumed without any oversight, often leading to higher levels of binge drinking and associated public health risks.

Eliminating alcohol duty and VAT on pub sales would help pubs stay afloat in an increasingly competitive market. More than that, it would preserve the social and cultural value that pubs bring to their communities. For many towns and villages, the pub is the only remaining public space where people can gather. By alleviating the tax burden on pubs, the government can protect these vital community assets while ensuring that alcohol is consumed in a more responsible and socially constructive environment.

Cultural Value and Economic Impact

The cultural value of pubs cannot be overstated. From local traditions to fostering social bonds, pubs are integral to the fabric of British life. The phrase “meeting down the pub” is as much a part of the national lexicon as a cuppa. But beyond their cultural significance, pubs also contribute enormously to the economy. The British Beer & Pub Association (BBPA) estimates that pubs support around 430,000 jobs, many of which are in economically vulnerable rural areas​.

When pubs close, these jobs disappear, and the local economy suffers. Empty pub buildings become eyesores, property values drop, and local councils lose vital business rate revenues. In the long run, this also affects tourism, as visitors to the UK often seek out traditional pubs as part of the quintessential British experience. Thus, saving pubs isn’t just about protecting a way of life; it’s about supporting the economy and safeguarding jobs.

Business rates charged to public houses need to re-appraised taking into account the importance of such hostelries to the local economy and community.

The Human Cost of Pub Closures

Beyond the economic statistics and community impact, there’s a human story at the heart of pub closures. Publicans who have spent years—sometimes decades—running their local pub are being forced to give up their livelihoods. Families who have owned pubs for generations are being driven out of business by mounting costs and unsustainable competition from supermarket chains.

The human cost isn’t limited to the publicans either. Regular patrons—especially the elderly—who rely on the pub as a social lifeline are being left isolated as their local closes. A 2019 study by the Royal Society for Public Health found that regular pub-goers were significantly more likely to report feelings of social connection and wellbeing than those who drank at home.

Conclusion

Saving pubs is about preserving the social and cultural fabric of the UK. The current tax system unfairly penalises pubs while allowing supermarkets to dominate the alcohol market. By eliminating alcohol duty and VAT from drinks sold in pubs, the government would give them the breathing space they need to survive, protect vital jobs, and maintain the community spaces that are so integral to British life.

The UK cannot afford to lose any more pubs. These institutions are more than just places to drink—they are the heart of communities, a source of social cohesion, and a vital part of the nation’s cultural heritage. If the government is serious about levelling up the economy, protecting jobs, and safeguarding community spaces, it must act now by radically reducing the tax burden on pubs and giving them a fighting chance. The alternative is a future where the pub is a thing of the past, replaced by cheaper, impersonal drinking at home, devoid of the rich social interaction that has characterised British life for centuries.

[i] Economies of ale: changes in the UK pubs and bars sector, 2001 to 2019

 Office for National Statistics

[ii] Research Briefing Pub Statistics House of Commons Library